Bitcoin Options Trading Poses New Risks to the Market

The Bitcoin (BTC) market will have another source of risk – trading in options. The intention of derivative instruments is to hedge the risk for owners, …
Bitcoin Options Trading Poses New RiskBitcoin

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Christine Vasileva| Dec 30, 2019 | 06:11


The Bitcoin (BTC) market will have another source of risk – trading in options. The intention of derivative instruments is to hedge the risk for owners, or potential buyers. But trading option positions holds an additional risk of its own.


Bitcoin Options Exposure Expected to Grow Next Year

Options exposure is growing, as the markets already offer several tools on various types of exchanges. The mainstream Bakkt exchange has been offering Bitcoin (BTC) options since December 9, and the CME will start the product on January 13.

However, exposure is also growing on the dy/dx DeFi exchange, and other crypto-to-crypto markets. The growth of options trading may turn into a source of losses, especially given the volatile nature of BTC. OKEx also launched its options trading for BTC this December 27, linking it to one of the most active futures markets. The Deribit exchange is also a source of European-style options, and is one of the leading markets.

$9.5MM in options exposure. 2020 is going to be a hell of a year.

Come gamble on options, guaranteed to lose your money but your affiliate fees go to charity:https://t.co/nCea2QzPwZpic.twitter.com/fa4Mla4D3G

— light (@LightCrypto) December 30, 2019

Options should, in general, offer strategies to offset various price move risks. There are multiple complex options strategies used for stock price moves. The risk with bitcoin comes from the much smaller market.

Over the past years, futures trading saw traders liquidated after sharp BTC moves. Options may open similar risks, as some strategies may prove unsuitable for bitcoin price moves.

As with futures, there are the possibilities to trade options positions, without buying the actual underlying asset. The inherent risk in positions trading may create more complexity, especially with fast and unexpected BTC price moves.

Riskier Options Offered by Small Startups

The other risk will stem from smaller startups offering their own options types, where trading may be even riskier. The trending of options trading on larger platforms is also rekindling the interest in bitcoin binary options, perhaps one of the riskiest bets of all.

In this case, the options are a bet on which direction the bitcoin price would take. Making the wrong bet could lead to immediate losses, and in the case of BTC, price moves often happen within hours. Options also mean no chance of holding actual bitcoin, an asset that at least cannot be confiscated or liquidated.

There is no way to predict how fair or active the options market would be. Even large exchanges are currently building up their usage.

⬇️Global Listed BTC Option Open Interest more than halved after the Dec19 expiry.

📈How long will it take before reaching the same levels?

❓More importantly, what will be the split between venues at the same time next year, with Bakkt, CME and OKEx ready to challenge Deribit? pic.twitter.com/bnduBiPjYa

— skew (@skewdotcom) December 29, 2019

Other predictions are more pessimistic, seeing options trading as a tool to further tame the bitcoin price.

Bitcoin will never go to 1 Million (or even 100K for that matter),….why? Because of BAKKT Cash Settle Futures option on Bitcoin. If you don’t believe that, just look at what has happened to the Precious Metals Markets with CASH Settled Options. No True Price Discovery.

— Cryptonaut (@Crypton09915373) December 30, 2019

While BTC could grow with no limits on the spot market, driven by bots and whales, options markets gather a new type of trader, interested in positions and not the long-term future of BTC.

What do you think about BTC options trading? Share your thoughts in the comments section below!


Images via Shutterstock, Twitter @LightCrypto @skewdotcom @Crypton09915373

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A Look at the Health of These Stocks: Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE), EVERTEC, Inc …

The Price to Cash Flow for Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) is 24.658889. The price to cash flow formula is a useful tool investors can use in …

The Price to Cash Flow for Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) is 24.658889. The price to cash flow formula is a useful tool investors can use in order to determine the value of a company. Generally, a higher P/CF ratio indicates that the company is less capital demanding and the lesser price to cash flow indicates that the company is more capital demanding.

Formula: Price to Cash Flow = Current Stock Price/ Cash Flow per Share

This ratio is calculated by dividing the market value of a company by cash from operating activities. Additionally, the price to earnings ratio is another popular way for analysts and investors to determine a company’s profitability. The price to earnings ratio for Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) is 30.739582. This ratio is found by taking the current share price and dividing by earnings per share.

Further, Price to Book ratio for Cboe Global Markets, Inc. BATS:CBOE is 3.728109. A lower price to book ratio indicates that the stock might be undervalued.

As any seasoned investor knows, trading stocks can be both exiting and scary. Figuring out how to profit in the market may take a lot of time and dedication. Many novice investors may jump into the markets without any kind of research. Some people may prefer to let professionals deal with their investments. With so much available information, investors may need to find out how to separate the important data from the unimportant data. As we move further into the second half of the year, investors are most likely monitoring market momentum to try and figure out how stocks will finish the year. With the stock market still trading at high levels, investors may be looking for certain stocks that still have room to move higher. Finding these stocks may be tricky, but doing the necessary research may help spot some names that will make a positive impact on the future of the portfolio.

In taking a look at some additional key numbers, Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) has a current ERP5 Rank of 3719. The ERP5 Rank may assist investors with spotting companies that are undervalued. This ranking uses four ratios. These ratios are Earnings Yield, ROIC, Price to Book, and 5 year average ROIC. When looking at the ERP5 ranking, it is generally considered the lower the value, the better.

The Gross Margin Score is calculated by looking at the Gross Margin and the overall stability of the company over the course of 8 years. The score is a number between one and one hundred (1 being best and 100 being the worst). The Gross Margin Score of Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) is 53.00000. The more stable the company, the lower the score. If a company is less stable over the course of time, they will have a higher score.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) currently has a Montier C-score of 4.00000. This indicator was developed by James Montier in an attempt to identify firms that were fixing the books in order to appear better on paper. The score ranges from zero to six where a 0 would indicate no evidence of book cooking, and a 6 would indicate a high likelihood. A C-score of -1 would indicate that there is not enough information available to calculate the score. Montier used six inputs in the calculation. These inputs included a growing difference between net income and cash flow from operations, increasing receivable days, growing day’s sales of inventory, increasing other current assets, decrease in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment, and high total asset growth.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) has an M-score Beneish of -2.461207. This M-score model was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value. The VC1 of Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) is 59. A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company. The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings. Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield. The Value Composite Two of Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) is 52.

At the time of writing, Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) has a Piotroski F-Score of 7. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Valuation

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) presently has a current ratio of 2.02. The current ratio, also known as the working capital ratio, is a liquidity ratio that displays the proportion of current assets of a business relative to the current liabilities. The ratio is simply calculated by dividing current liabilities by current assets. The ratio may be used to provide an idea of the ability of a certain company to pay back its liabilities with assets. Typically, the higher the current ratio the better, as the company may be more capable of paying back its obligations.

The Earnings to Price yield of Cboe Global Markets, Inc. BATS:CBOE is 0.032531. This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price. This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance. Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company. The Earnings Yield for Cboe Global Markets, Inc. BATS:CBOE is 0.046664. Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company. Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value. The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) is 0.021227.

Free Cash Flow Growth (FCF Growth) is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow. The FCF Growth of Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) is 0.857965. Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure. This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends. The Free Cash Flow Score (FCF Score) is a helpful tool in calculating the free cash flow growth with free cash flow stability – this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow. The FCF Score of Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) is 1.212977. Experts say the higher the value, the better, as it means that the free cash flow is high, or the variability of free cash flow is low or both.

Volatility

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase. Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year. The Volatility 12m of Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) is 23.584600. This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized. The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility. The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months. The Volatility 3m of Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) is 19.538100. The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months. The Volatility 6m is 17.666100.

Every investor strives to maximize returns in the stock market. To achieve success in the market, investors may take many different paths. Because there are so many different strategies, one investor’s road may end up being quite different than another. Over time, the investor may have to overcome various difficulties. Trading the stock market can indeed be exhilarating, but it can also cause lots of strife. Some investors may be able to be much more aggressive when creating the stock portfolio. Others may have a much lower risk threshold and choose to play it a bit safer. Because humans are prone to error, there may be many mistakes made along the way. Investors who are able to identify mistakes and learn from them may find themselves in a much better position down the road.

Here we will take a look into some valuation metrics for EVERTEC, Inc. NYSE:EVTC shares.

Price-To-Cash-Flow-Ratiois a term that indicates the degree of cash flow valuation of theenterprisein the securities market. It is derived from theP/E – Price Earnings Ratio, in which theprofitis replaced bycash flow. Unlike P/E, the ratio isn’t affected by the chosen depreciation methods, making it suitable for geographic comparison. EVERTEC, Inc. currently has a P/CF ratio of 13.572298.

When active traders find an opening to get in on a stock they think is about to make a move, they may try to buy up as much as they can before the price moves back outside the buying range. This buying may be seen when the stock market dips after a bearish move. Spotting these buying conditions and being able to make a timely move can help the trader take advantage of various market scenarios. Winning traders are typically ready to pounce on any opportunity they find in the stock market.

Volatility

Watching some historical volatility numbers on shares of EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC), we can see that the 12 month volatility is presently 31.697100. The 6 month volatility is 31.493100, and the 3 month is spotted at 37.017600. Following volatility data can help measure how much the stock price has fluctuated over the specified time period. Although past volatility action may help project future stock volatility, it may also be vastly different when taking into account other factors that may be driving price action during the measured time period.

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) presently has a 10 month price index of 1.21213. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 1.35854, the 24 month is 1.82398, and the 36 month is 2.06022. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 1.14580, the 3 month is 1.11085, and the 1 month is currently 0.97248.

Valuation Ratios

Looking at some ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) numbers, EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC)’s ROIC is 0.715825. The ROIC 5 year average is 1.299291 and the ROIC Quality ratio is 10.587014. ROIC is a profitability ratio that measures the return that an investment generates for those providing capital. ROIC helps show how efficient a firm is at turning capital into profits. In terms of EBITDA Yield, EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) currently has a value of 0.063885. This value is derived by dividing EBITDA by Enterprise Value.

The Price to Book ratio (Current share price / Book value per share) is a good valuation measure you can use to find undervalued investment ideas. A low Price to Book could indicate that the shares are undervalued in their industry. Generally speaking a P/B ratio under 1 is considered low and is best used in relation to asset-heavy firms. At the time of writing EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) has a price to book ratio of 10.388717.

The Leverage Ratio of EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) is 0.624600. Leverage ratio is the total debt of a company divided by total assets of the current and past year divided by two. Companies take on debt to finance their day to day operations. The leverage ratio can measure how much of a company’s capital comes from debt. With this ratio, investors can better estimate how well a company will be able to pay their long and short term financial obligations.

With so many different stock trading strategies to choose from, new investors may become overwhelmed when presented with all the possible options. Some investors will choose to rely on the expertise of professionals, while others will try to have a go at it on their own. Investors who prefer to do their own research and make their own investment decisions are quite common these days. Of course there is no set in stone way to properly trade the stock market. Markets and economic situations are constantly changing. Staying on top of all the latest information and global developments can be challenging. Investors who are able to stay the course and put in the required time might be able to eventually give themselves a leg up in the future.

There are many different tools to determine whether a company is profitable or not. One of the most popular ratios is the “Return on Assets” (aka ROA). This score indicates how profitable a company is relative to its total assets. The Return on Assets for EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) is 0.107164. This number is calculated by dividing net income after tax by the company’s total assets. A company that manages their assets well will have a higher return, while a company that manages their assets poorly will have a lower return.

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value. The VC1 of EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) is 58. A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company. The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings. Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield. The Value Composite Two of EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) is 62.

When the stock market is doing well, there may be plenty of winners in the portfolio. Figuring out when to sell a winner can be a tricky proposition. Many investors will be quick to take profits while others may want to hold out for further gains. Selling winners too early or holding on to winners too long may have a negative impact on the trading portfolio. Finding that balance between securing profits and holding out to take higher profits in the future can be very helpful for the active investor.

At the time of writing, EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) has a Piotroski F-Score of 8. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

The Price to book ratio is the current share price of a company divided by the book value per share. The Price to Book ratio for EVERTEC, Inc. NYSE:EVTC is 10.388717. A lower price to book ratio indicates that the stock might be undervalued. Similarly, Price to cash flow ratio is another helpful ratio in determining a company’s value. The Price to Cash Flow for EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) is 13.572298. This ratio is calculated by dividing the market value of a company by cash from operating activities. Additionally, the price to earnings ratio is another popular way for analysts and investors to determine a company’s profitability. The price to earnings ratio for EVERTEC, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) is 24.068579. This ratio is found by taking the current share price and dividing by earnings per share.

Investors may be looking closely at current stock market levels as we move towards the closing stages of the year. Investors might be reviewing current holdings to see if there are any changes that need to be made. Even when things are going good with equities, it may be wise to regularly check the portfolio to make sure that everything is still balanced properly. Being prepared for various market conditions may be a great help to the investor when the winds of change eventually blow in.

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Bitcoin Price Indicator May Signal Next Leg Higher

History looks to be repeating itself in the bitcoin market, as a key indicator’s bullish turn could mark the beginning of the next meteoric price rally.

History looks to be repeating itself in the bitcoin market, as a key indicator’s bullish turn could mark the beginning of the next meteoric price rally.

The world’s most valuable cryptocurrency’s price action seen over the last eight months is very similar to the moves seen in 2015, according to Bitstamp data. For instance, the bitcoin bear market ended near $3,100 in mid-December 2018 and prices built a base below $4,000 in the following three months before breaking into a bull market on April 2.

Notably, the bear market drop ran out of steam two months before the 50- and 10-week moving averages confirmed a bearish crossover (in February 2019).

Further, the new bull market began two months following the confirmation of the bearish crossover. That is hardly surprising as bearish crossovers of long duration MAs are big-time lagging indicators and often mark bear market bottoms.

What’s more interesting is that the previous bear market (2014) had also run out of steam in the run-up to the bearish crossover and the confirmation of the crossover was followed by a bullish breakout, as seen in the chart below.

Weekly chart

The bear market, which began at the end of 2013, ran out of steam at lows near $150 in January 2015. The 50- and 100-week MAs produced a bearish cross in April and a bullish reversal was confirmed at the end of October 2015.

Note that the bull market had stalled around $450 following a quick rise from $320 to $500 in November.

The cryptocurrency resumed the bull market in the last week of May 2016 after prices rose 18 percent and the 50- and 100-week MAs produced a bullish crossover.

More importantly, BTC went on to hit fresh record highs above $1,200 in February 2017.

As of now, BTC is trading around $10,300, having rallied from $4,000 to $13,880 in the second quarter. Essentially, the bull market has stalled in the last few weeks.

With history repeating itself, there is a strong reason to believe that the bullish crossover of the 50- and 100-week MAs, if and when, confirmed, could mark the beginning of a meteoric rise well above $20,000.

Currently, the 50- and 100-week MAs are located at $6,556 and $7,668, respectively.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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Are Analysts Viewing Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBOE) Positively?

Taking a look at shares Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBOE), we can see that 5 have rated the stock a Strong Buy or Buy, based on data …

Investors have the ability to track Wall Street analyst opinions in order to assist with stock research. Analysts often provide Buy, Sell, or Hold recommendations ratings for companies that they cover. Taking a look at shares Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBOE), we can see that 5 have rated the stock a Strong Buy or Buy, based on data provided by Zacks Research. Checking on the average broker rating, we note that the current score is 1.89. This recommendation score uses a 1 to 5 scale where a score of 1 would indicate a Buy rating, and a score of 5 would indicate a Sell recommendation.

When it comes to investing in the equity market, discipline can play a major role in achieving ones goals. A few bad moves can send the investor’s confidence spiraling. Acting purely on emotion can lead to impulsive decisions that may cause the losses to pile up. Creating a solid plan and following through with the plan can help investors stay on track and focus on the proper details. Markets are constantly going up and down and the investing ride can sometimes be a bumpy one. Being able to see the big picture and focus on the important data can help keep the investor tuned in to the right channel. Investors who expect to jump into the market and immediately start raking in the profits may find out fairly quickly that trading without a plan can be a recipe for defeat.

Individual investors might be looking at all the angles in order to concoct a winning plan for the next few quarters. The diligent investor is typically on the ball and ready to encounter any unforeseen market movements. Monitoring recent stock price activity on shares of Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBOE) we have noted that the stock price has been trading near $115.06. Turning the focus to some historical price information, we note that the stock has moved 7.45% over the previous 12 weeks. Since the start of the year, we note that shares have seen a change of 17.61%. Over the last 4 weeks, shares have seen a change of -5.59%. Over the last 5 sessions, the stock has moved -3.48%. After a recent scan, we can see that the 52-week high is currently $121.87, and the 52-week low is presently $91.23.

Following shares of Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBOE), we can see that the average consensus target price based on contributing analysts is currently $118.75. Wall Street analysts often provide price target projections on where they believe the stock will be headed in the future. Because price target projections are essentially the opinions of covering analysts, they have the ability to vary widely from one analyst to another. Navigating the equity markets can seem daunting at times. Finding ways to identify the important data can make a big difference in sustaining profits into the future. As we move closer to the end of the year, investors will be watching to see which way the momentum shifts and if stocks are still primed to go higher. Investors might choose to rely heavily on analyst research and corresponding target predictions, or they may choose to use them as a guide to supplement their own research.

Zooming in on the current quarter EPS consensus estimate for Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBOE), we see that the current number is 1.1. This EPS estimate is using 9 Wall Street analysts polled by Zacks Research. Last quarter, the company stated a quarterly EPS of 1.13. Sell-side analysts have the task of examining companies and providing estimates relating to future results. These estimates carry a lot of weight on the Street, and earnings hits or misses revolve around these numbers. Sometimes these predictions are very close to the actual reported number, and other times they are not. Many investors will be closely watching which way analyst estimates are being adjusted right before earnings. This may provide some insight on how good or bad the numbers for the quarter are likely to be. Investors might want to take a look at their holdings after the earnings reports to make sure that nothing extremely out of the ordinary after combing through the results.

Although the investing process is fairly straightforward, securing consistent returns in the stock market is not easy. Throwing hard earned money at un-researched investments can eventually lead the investor down the road to ruin. Every individual investor may have different goals when starting out. Aligning these goals with a specific plan can create a solid foundation for the future. Nobody can predict what the future will hold, but being aware of market conditions can be a great asset when attempting to navigate the terrain while mitigating risk. Once the vision of the individual investor is clear, the road to sustaining profits may be much easier to travel.

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Time to Short This Education Stock Again

When we last checked in with 2U Inc (NASDAQ:TWOU), the online education specialist had its trading halted after a dismal earnings report.

When we last checked in with 2U Inc (NASDAQ:TWOU), the online education specialist had its trading halted after a dismal earnings report. While TWOU has slowly picked itself up from that July 31 bottom of $11.37, it’s rallying right into a trendline that could have bearish implications, if history is any guide. At last check, the security is 6.5% lower at $19.15.

More specifically, 2U stock has run head-first into its 40-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch below it, defined for this study as having traded south of the moving average 60% of the time in the past two months, and in eight of the last 10 trading days. There have been six similar encounters with this moving average in the last three years, after which the stock was lower 21 days later by 13.2%, on average, per data from Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, with all four of the six returns negative.

Daily Stock Chart TWOUDaily Stock Chart TWOU
Daily Stock Chart TWOU

A move lower of similar magnitude would have the legion of 2U short sellers cheering. Although short interest decreased by 16.7% in the two most recent reporting periods, the 10.59 million shares sold short still accounts for 22.1% of the equity’s total available float.

Meanwhile in the options pits, the focus has been almost exclusively on calls. Amid limited absolute volume, 4,345 calls have been bought in the past 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), compared to just 140 puts. Echoing this is the security’s Schaeffer’s put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.27, which ranks in the bottom 2nd percentile — underscoring a very unusual call-skew among short-term speculators.

Plus, TWOU sports a Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 89 (out of a possible 100), meaning the security had handily exceeded options traders’ volatility expectations during the past year.

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