Next up is another financial stock, PennyMac Mortgage. This company is a mortgage investment trust, a sub-niche of the real estate investment trust industry that provides somewhat more liquidity by investing primarily in mortgage backed securities rather than directly in real properties.
During the corona crisis of 1H20, PMT saw earnings turn negative in Q1 and return to positive territory in Q2. The numbers were -$5.99 EPS in the first quarter, and $4.51 in the second. Revenues followed a similar pattern, with the Q2 top line hitting $475 million.
The company adjusted its mortgage payments in the first half to account for the earnings volatility. PMT paid out 25 cents per common share in Q1, just slightly more than half of the long-held dividend of 47 cents. In Q2, management started raising the dividend, and paid out 40 cents per common share, which gives a yield 9.1%.
Trevor Cranston wrote the review of this stock for JMP, and sees the company with a path forward as the pandemic effects wane.
“[Our] outlook on MSRs has improved somewhat in the past few months as the expected negative COVID-19-related impact has subsided, and we continue to believe strength in the correspondent lending business is likely to more than offset any weakness in MSR results due to strong tailwinds for origination volumes, even as conventional margins have returned to more normalized levels,” Cranston opined. “As a result, believe PMT shares should trade at a premium to the hybrid REIT peer group as many peers sold significant volumes of credit assets in late 1Q and early 2Q, resulting in less book value recovery potential.”
Along with these comments, he gives the stock a $19 price target, implying room for 9% upside growth. Cranston’s rating on the stock is Outperform, (i.e. Buy). (To watch Cranston’s track record, click here)
Overall, PMT holds a Moderate Buy analyst consensus rating based on 5 recent Buys and 2 Holds. The stock has an average price target of $19.40, slightly higher than Cranston’s, and indicative of a 11% upside potential. (See PMT stock analysis on TipRanks)
Oaktree Specialty Lending (OCSL)
Last up on this list, Oaktree, is another specialty finance company. Oaktree provides loans and credit access for small- to mid-size companies that cannot gain entry to traditional sources of capital. Oaktree’s portfolio is modestly diverse, with $1.4 billion invested in 128 companies. Most of this is first lien debt, 62%, while some 20% is made up of second lien.
Oaktree reported last month on its FYQ3 results, and the results were solid. EPS came in at 12 cents, against a forecast of 11 cents, for a 9% beat. Revenue for the fiscal third quarter was $34.4 million, even with forecast and down slightly yoy.
The earnings results suggest that the company is emerging from the corona crises intact, a thesis supported by management’s decision to raise the quarterly dividend. They have not raised the payout since mid-2018, when it was set at 10 cents per common share. The new dividend payment is 10% higher, at 11 cents, but while the numbers seem small, the yield is an impressive 8.5%.
Turning back to Christopher York, we find that the JPM analyst has set a $6 price target on OCSL, suggesting his belief in a 24% potential for the stock.
Backing his stance, York writes, “We think the combination of stability in portfolio performance in 2Q20, along with growth in the investment portfolio at wider spreads gave the board the necessary boost to finally increase the dividend with improved visibility in recurring core earnings. Going forward, we believe there are a couple levers available for OCSL to expand earnings and ROE, so we think another dividend increase in F2021 is possible.”
Of the three stocks on this list, Oaktree is the one with a Strong Buy analyst consensus rating – and it is unanimous. The stock has received 5 Buy reviews in recent weeks. The shares are priced at $4.83, and the $5.60 average price target implies an upside potential of 16% for the coming 12 months. (See OCSL stock analysis on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.