Investor Toolbox: A Look at the 171 ERP5 For Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L)

Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) has an ERP5 rank of 171. The ERP5 score was designed by the MFIE Capital team. It combines the …

Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) has an ERP5 rank of 171. The ERP5 score was designed by the MFIE Capital team. It combines the Greenblatt Magic formula with ideas developed by Graham & Dodd, who advocated the use of 5 to 10 year smoothed earnings to cover full economic business cycles and dampen the effect of expansions and recessions. Finally it adds the book-to-market ratio into the mix.

For the novice investor, the stock market can sometimes be a scary place. Many investors may be ready to jump into the ring, but they might not have the proper training. Finding a stock market strategy that puts the investor on the winning side is not an easy task. There is a plentiful amount of information regarding the equity market. Knowing what information to focus on can be the key to sustained success. Investors who are able to sift through the noise and stick to a sturdy stock picking plan, may be in a much better position when tough portfolio decisions need to be made. Many investors will instinctually want to jump in to a stock that has taken off running. Sometimes this may work out positively, but it can also lead to significant losses and second guessing. If all the proper research is completed, investors may feel more at ease with their selections going forward. Of course there will be times when the research does not turn into expected profits, but knowing how to let go of those stocks may help the investor in the long run.

EBITDA/EV



EBITDA/EV is similar to Earnings Yield, but here we use Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) as Nominator). By doing this, we can compare companies with a different capital structure and capital expenditures. This way it gives a much better idea of the value of a company compared to the popular P/E ratio. You can think of it as the taking all the revenue and subtracting the costs that solely go into running the business. The downside of EBITDA is that it can be abused by companies declaring as “one-off” costs things that should really be considered normal costs. We use the EBITDA of the last 12 months. Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) has an EBITDA/EV of 0.184367.

Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company. The Earnings Yield for Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 0.162962. Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company. Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value. The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 0.159589.

FCF Yield 5yr Avg

The FCF Yield 5yr Average is calculated by taking the five year average free cash flow of a company, and dividing it by the current enterprise value. Enterprise Value is calculated by taking the market capitalization plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. The average FCF of a company is determined by looking at the cash generated by operations of the company. The Free Cash Flow Yield 5 Year Average of Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 0.16249.

Price to book, Price to cash flow, Price to earnings

Price to cash flow ratio is another helpful ratio in determining a company’s value. The Price to Cash Flow for Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 9.358108. This ratio is calculated by dividing the market value of a company by cash from operating activities. Additionally, the price to earnings ratio is another popular way for analysts and investors to determine a company’s profitability. The price to earnings ratio for Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 9.758308. This ratio is found by taking the current share price and dividing by earnings per share. The price to sales stands at 1.324175.

Value Comp 1 / Value Comp 2

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value. The VC1 of Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 9. A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company. The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings. Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield. The Value Composite Two of Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 6. VC3 is the combination of the following factors:

Price-to-Book

Price-to-Earnings

Price-to-Sales

EBITDA/EV

Price-to-Cash flow

Buyback Yield

As with the VC1 and VC2, companies are put into groups from 1 to 100 for each ratio and the individual scores are summed up. This total score is then put into groups again from 1 to 100. 1 is cheap, 100 is expensive. Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) has a VC3 of 7.

Volatility 12 m, 6m, 3m

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase. Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year. The Volatility 12m of Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 15.6928. This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized. The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility. The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months. The Volatility 3m of Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 21.5746. The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months. The Volatility 6m is 18.0155.

MF Rank

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price. The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital. The MF Rank of Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 93. A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in. The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Piotroski F-Score

The Piotroski F-Score is a scoring system between 1-9 that determines a firm’s financial strength. The score helps determine if a company’s stock is valuable or not. The Piotroski F-Score of Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 5. A score of nine indicates a high value stock, while a score of one indicates a low value stock. The score is calculated by the return on assets (ROA), Cash flow return on assets (CFROA), change in return of assets, and quality of earnings. It is also calculated by a change in gearing or leverage, liquidity, and change in shares in issue. The score is also determined by change in gross margin and change in asset turnover.

Return on Assets

There are many different tools to determine whether a company is profitable or not. One of the most popular ratios is the “Return on Assets” (aka ROA). This score indicates how profitable a company is relative to its total assets. The Return on Assets for Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.L) is 0.047617. This number is calculated by dividing net income after tax by the company’s total assets. A company that manages their assets well will have a higher return, while a company that manages their assets poorly will have a lower return.

There are various factors to examine when looking at what spurs growth in the stock market. Many investors will monitor macro-economic factors that influence the price of shares. Some of these factors include the overall condition of the economy and market sentiment. Following the macro factors, investors may employ a top down approach when viewing the equity markets. This may include starting with a sector poised for growth and filtering down to specific stock that meet the investor’s criteria. Another way to approach the stock market is to view the micro-economic factors that influence stocks. This may include studying company profits, news, and the competence of overall management. Investors will often try to piece together all the different information available in order to select stocks that will have a positive impact on the long-term strength of the portfolio.

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